Redskins Season Prediction

11-5.

What?

This will be a turning point year for these Washington Redskins. I see them entering the playoffs as a strong Wild Card. They win one, if not two playoff games. They finish what they started the first half of last year. They reap what Joe Gibbs began sowing when he came back: patient player development.

This year we finally get the offensive breakthrough we have been waiting for. Things I expect to happen to make it so:

• Jim Zorn wows us with his creativity and risk taking over the course of the season, as he did to start last season.
• Jason Campbell has a big year, stays in Washington, and maybe even makes the Pro Bowl.
• Albert Haynesworth makes the rest of the defense better by steadily occupying two guys and creating more sacks and takeaway opportunities.
• Brian Orakpo is a monster, a strong candidate for defensive rookie of the year.
• Clinton Portis again shows he has greatness in him, though he needs more help and has to pick his spots more.
• Malcolm Kelly adds just enough as a weapon to put defenses on their heels, enabling Campbell to distribute the ball across the field like a point guard.

I see the games breaking down something like this:

How?

I agree with Qadry Ismail that all these Skins need is the kind of toughness the elite teams show, game in game out. I think they have it in them. We saw it in how they went toe-to-toe with the Pats in the preseason. But they will need to show themselves that they can do it over the course of a season. That is what remains to be seen.

I think they make the breakthrough. Below are my four main reasons. Call them the intangibles that finally come together to get them over the hump.

First, because the Redskins were three plays away from 10-6 last year. This year, they execute that little bit better, and build their confidence over the season as a result.

If Pete Kendall does not run with that reception against St. Louis at the end of the first half, they more than likely win that game. Confidence builds. If Carlos Rogers makes that pick against the Steelers and waltzes uncontested down the open field into the endzone, the Skins take a two score lead and put the pressure on backup quarterback Byron Leftwich. They may not win, but they are in better position to win, and their confidence builds. If Jim Zorn does not call Mike Sellers again at the goal line against Cincinnati, Sellers does not hold the ball out only to have it slapped away for a game-changing fumble.

Three plays. Two, maybe three more wins. Remove those lingering “could have been” feelings and doubts. This year, they learn from last year and play smarter from start to finish. Thank Jim Zorn and the staff for the focus on the details. And thank Joe Gibbs for setting the stage. And that means thank Dan Snyder for his patience.

Second, because it takes time and stability for teams to come together, and this has been an offseason of continuity and improvement.

Joe Gibbs brought great stability to the Skins. It has still been something of a circus in Redskinsland at times, but there is clearer a patience from Dan Snyder down the organization. They have tried to draft better than they did in the early Snyder years, and they have. They have made smarter (if not still overpaid) signings. They are improving as an organization from top to bottom, and I credit Gibbs for impressing this upon Snyder. Snyder said it himself when Gibbs retired the second time, saying “One thing I learned from Gibbs was great patience.” Snyder still seems to have a ways to go, but I see more patience here than ever in Snyder’s tenure.

For an owner that knows what he wants and goes after it like a free safety, I only want enough patience, not too much.

Third, because this team has a solid core of guys who really love each other.

For those who recall exactly where they were when Sean Taylor died, and who remember the kinds of conversations they had with other Washingtonians immediately afterward, something happened around here that was hard to put into words. Had Joe Gibbs not been here then, it may have gone another way. But Gibbs was a uniquely uniting leader, and as a result the core group of guys still on this team went through that unspeakable tragedy together. And based on what I have seen from this team, these guys really love playing together and winning together. Going through a tragedy like the Taylor death sealed that love, and despite their relative lack of superior talent in the eyes of many experts, they came out 6-2 last year. Why? Because they outsmarted other teams? Or outhearted them?

Fourth, because Jason Campbell is confident and ready to lead this team to greatness.

I believe Jason Campbell has greatness in him, waiting for the breakthrough that can only happen on the field. I think it will. I think we look back at this offseason, laughingly telling our kids the story of this offseason and how we thank the heavens that Campbell did not get traded away. I think that in the culture of this team, his unassuming, quietly confident style will permeate the players on the field and let Jim Zorn take more risks in the play calling. It will put that little bit of additional pressure on the opposing offense, which will set up Haynesworth, Orakpo, Fletcher, Landry, and the boys to pin their ears back.

Really?

We’ll see. Of course, there is the reality of injuries. That could derail everything. But, I think these guys really want it. And they must do it this year, or Snyder is sure to start rebuilding. He may not be patient forever.

This is the year for the Skins to slip into marketing madness and football irrelevance, or to rise to greatness. I think this team will contend for the Super Bowl in the coming years. But this will be the breakthrough year. The organization will adapt around this team, if they will start strong, persist through the down times, and make those few decisive plays that decide a game, if not a season.

I do not believe this is some perfect storm scenario. I am not as concerned about the front office shortcomings as Wilbon is, though they are real, and that adds to the difficulty. I am concerned about one thing: Will Jason Campbell let it all hang out, take the needed risks, and build this team around him, his strengths, and his instincts.

I think he will figure it out. That’s why I’ll be covering him closely on this blog. My instincts may be WAY off here. It will be interesting.

But I got this year being a breakthrough. The difference between winning and losing in the NFL really is as thin as a quarterback’s confidence. I see a Skins team that knows how thin it is. They believe they have greatness in them as a team, but they also know they have a lot of uninspiring performances and the related muscle memory built up over the years to overcome. It will take consistent focus and execution. It will take leadership.

That brings me back to the “intangibles” listed above, the tangibles of leadership. I think they stay focused this year, and Jason Campbell leads them over the hump.

But who cares what I say? You have to do it on the field. Only on the field. So it will be a great experience to watch. Call it a watershed year. I will be shedding tears either way.